Saturday, 31 May 2014

Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2013-14 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 2013-14

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2013-14 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2013-14, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

3.  GDP growth rates for 2013-14 and Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 of 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given below:


Constant prices
Current prices

At Factor cost
Market price
At Factor cost
Market price
Annual 2013-14
4.7
5.0
11.5
12.3
Q1 2013-14(April-June)
4.7
4.2
10.6
10.3
Q2 2013-14(July-Sep)
5.2
5.2
12.7
13.6
Q3 2013-14(Oct-Dec)
4.6
4.4
12.8
13.0
Q4 2013-14 (Jan-Mar)
4.6
6.1
10.2
12.2

Estimates including growth rates for Q1,Q2 and Q3 released earlier have been revised according to the revision policy of this Ministry.

I         PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2013-14

4.                  The advance estimates of national income for the year 2013-14 were released on 7th February, 2014. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and government expenditure.


5.                  The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

(a)   Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

Gross Domestic Product
6.               GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2013-14 is now estimated at ` 57.42 lakh crore (as against  ` 57.49 lakh crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2014), showing a growth rate of 4.7 percent (as against 4.9 percent estimated earlier) over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of ` 54.82 lakh crore, released on 31thJanuary 2014. 

7.                  In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (106.29 million Tonnes from 106.19 million Tonnes), wheat (95.85 million Tonnes from 95.60 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (348.38 million Tonnes from 345.92 million Tonnes) for the year 2013-14. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2013-14 has shown a growth rate of 4.7 percent, as against the growth rate of 4.6 percent in the Advance Estimates.

8.         In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining registered a decline of 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the decline of 2.2 percent during April-November, 2013, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 0.8 percent and (-) 0.2 percent in 2013-14 as compared to growth rates of 1.2 percent and (-) 0.6 percent during April to December, 2013. The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 1.4 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-)1.9 percent.

9.         Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of (-) 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the projected growth rate of (-)0.3 percent for April- March 2013-14 used for compiling the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at (-) 0.7 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-) 0.2 percent.

10.       The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 3.0 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively in 2013-14 as against 3.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively during April-December 2013. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 1.6 percent as against 1.7 percent in the Advance Estimates.

11.       The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 14.6 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively during 2013-14 over the corresponding period in 2012-13, as compared to growth of 15.9 percent and 14.5 percent as on December 2013. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of  (-) 20.2 per cent, 1.8 percent, 2.6 per cent and  6.6 per cent  respectively during April-March of 2013-14. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 1.6 and (-) 1.9 percent respectively during 2013-14 . The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 3.0 percent in 2013-14 as against 3.5 percent in the advance estimate released in February, 2014.

12.       The sector 'community, social and personal services' has shown a growth rate of 5.6 per cent in the provisional  estimates, as against the growth rate of  7.4 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to  fall in total expenditure of Central Government than anticipated (during April-December 2013). The total expenditure of Central Government showed a rise of 17.4 per cent which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the  Revised Estimates (RE)  2013-14  of Central Government  expenditure showed a rise of only 12.8 per cent.

Gross National Income

13.       The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at ` 56.74 lakh crore (as compared to 56.81 lakh crore estimated on 7th February 2014), during 2013-14, as against the previous year’s First Revised Estimate of` 54.17 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.7 percent during 2013-14, in comparison to the growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2012-13.

Per Capita Net National Income

14.       The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of ` 39,904 (as against ` 39,961 estimated on 7th February, 2014), as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of 38,856. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.7 percent during 2013-14 as against 2.1 percent during 2012-13.

(b) Estimates at current prices

Gross Domestic Product
15.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2013-14 is estimated at `104.73 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of ` 93.89 lakh crore, released on 31th January 2014.

Gross National Income

16.       The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at ` 103.45 lakh crore during 2013-14, as compared to ` 92.72 lakh crore during 2012-13, showing a rise of 11.6 percent.

Per Capita Net National Income
17.       The per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of   ` 74,380 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of `  67,839 showing a rise of 9.6 percent.

II  ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES, 2013-14
 18.      GDP at current market price is estimated at ` 113.55 lakh crore in the year 2013-14 (` 113.20 lakh crore in advance estimates)  as against  101.13 lakh crore in the year 2012-13 showing an increase of 12.3 per cent. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GDP at market price is estimated at ` 61.96 lakh crore in the year 2013-14 (` 61.74 lakh crore in the advance estimates)  as against `  59.0 lakh crore in 2012-13 showing an increase of 5.0 percent over the previous year. The estimates of GDP at market prices are derived at by adding net indirect taxes( indirect taxes – subsidies) to GDP at factor cost. The indirect taxes and subsidies have been compiled using  the  Revised Estimates  of  Central Government. Growth in major subsidies for RE 2013 -14 over 2012-13 is -0.1 percent. Growth in  indirect tax  revenue of the Central Government including Customs, excise and service tax is  5.6 per cent, 2.1 percent and 24.5 percent respectively for  RE 2013-14 over 2012-13.
III      ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2013-14

19.       Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

20.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 64.85 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 57.72 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 37.20 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 35.48 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 57.1 percent and 60.0 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.1 percent and 60.1 percent, respectively in 2012-13.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

21.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 13.41 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 11.89 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 6.87 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 6.62 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 11.8 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.8 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively in 2012-13.



Gross Fixed Capital Formation

22.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ` 32.11 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 30.72 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at ` 20.00 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against ` 20.02 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.3 percent and 32.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4 percent and 33.9 percent, respectively in 2012-13. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

23.       The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 3.2 percent and (-)1.2 percent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of 3.2 percent and (-)1.0 percent respectively in 2012-13.

24.       Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.

IV       QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2013-14

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
25.       The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2013-14 is estimated at ` 15.38 lakh crore, as against `  14.71 lakh  crore in Q4 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.6 percent.
26.       Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (6.3 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (-0.4 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (-1.4 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (7.2 percent) ‘construction’ (0.7 percent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (3.9 percent), 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' (12.4 percent), and 'community, social and personal services' (3.3 percent).

27.       According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 1.1 percent, (-)1.6 percent and 7.6 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2013-14, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 3.8 percent, 3.1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2012-13.

28.       The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 1.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2013-14, as against the growth rates of (-)1.2 percent and (-)2.8 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of  (-)24.1 percent and 1.4  percent  respectively in Q4 of 2013-14. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 3.9 percent in 2013-14 as against 4.8 percent in Q4 of 2012-13.

29.       The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at
 ` 9.78 lakh  crore and ` 5.36 lakh  crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 were 57.0 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.9 percent and 33.4 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13.


(b) Estimates at current prices

30.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2013-14 is estimated at ` 28.01 lakh crore, as against ` 25.42 lakh crore in Q4 of 2012-13, showing a growth of 10.2 percent.

31.       The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at ` 17.22 lakh  crore and ` 8.68 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at 54.7 percent and 27.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.6 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13.

32.       Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.

Wednesday, 28 May 2014

Quarterly Report on Public Debt Management for the Fourth Quarter Of 2013-14 (January-March 2014) Released; Gross and Net Market Borrowings are Higher than Previous Year by 1.0 Per Cent and 0.2 Per Cent Respectively

Since Apr-Jun (Q1) 2010-11, Middle Office (MO) is bringing out a quarterly report on debt management. The current report pertains to the quarter Jan-Mar 2014 (Q4 FY14).

            For fiscal year 2013-14 (FY14), gross and net market borrowings were higher than previous year by 1.0 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively. Auctions during Q4 of FY14 were held in accordance with the pre-announced calendar apart from the cancellation of one deferred auction of Rs. 15,000 crore scheduled on January 17, 2013. The weighted average maturity and weighted average yield (cut-off) of dated securities issued during Q4 of FY14 remained stable at 13.77 years (13.91 years in the previous quarter) and 9.07 per cent (8.93 per cent in Q3) respectively. Weighted average yield of issuance during FY14 at 8.41 per cent was marginally higher than 8.36 per cent in the previous fiscal year, while weighted average maturity at 14.23 years was higher than 13.5 years in FY13. The cash position of the Government during Q4 was comfortable and remained in surplus mode during the quarter. As budgeted in Union Budget 2013-14, the Government repurchased its Securities through reverse auction for an aggregate amount of Rs. 15,590 crore (face value) during March 2014 to prematurely redeem the Government Stocks by utilizing its surplus cash balances. In addition switching of government securities worth Rs. 31,400 crore from 2014-15 and 2015-16 maturity buckets to longer tenors was also conducted in fourth quarter.

The total public debt (excluding liabilities under the ‘Public Account’) of the Government at end-March 2014 decreased marginally on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis by 0.1 per cent (provisional) compared with an increase of 3.1 per cent in the previous quarter. Internal debt constituted 91.1 per cent of public debt and marketable securities accounted for 83.3 per cent of total public debt. About 29.8 per cent of outstanding dated securities have a residual maturity of up to 5 years compared with about 30.2 per cent a quarter ago which implies that over the next five years, on an average, less than 6.0 per cent of outstanding stock needs to be rolled over every year.

            In the secondary market, while there was no change in closing levels of 10 year bench mark Government of India security at end-quarter from previous quarter end (8.84 % on March 31, 2014), the yield traded in a range of 8.52% - 8.94% during Q4 of FY 14. Compared to previous quarter, bonds yields marginally moderated over the curve with marginally flattening at the longer end while some steepening in maturities below 10 years. The total volume of Government securities transacted on an outright basis increased by of 18.32 per cent over the preceding quarter, contributed mainly by Central government dated securities. The annualised outright turnover ratio for Central government dated securities for Q4 of FY14 increased to 3.65 from 3.10 during the previous quarter.

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