The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the revised estimates of national income for the financial year 2011-12 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.
2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.
I REVISED ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2011-12
3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2011-12 were released on 7th February, 2012. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.
4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
Gross Domestic Product
5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2011-12 is now estimated at Rs. 52,02,514crore (as against Rs. 52,22,027 crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2012), showing a growth rate of 6.5 per cent (as against 6.9 per cent in the Advance Estimates) over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 48, 85,954 crore, released on 31th January 2012. The downward revision in the GDP growth rate is mainly on account of lower performance in ‘manufacturing’ and ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ than anticipated.
6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed an upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (103.41 million Tonnes from 102.75 million Tonnes), wheat (90.23 million Tonnes from 88.31 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (351.19 million Tonnes from 347.87 million Tonnes) for the year 2011-12.Due to this upward revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2011-12 has shown a growth rate of 2.8 per cent, as against the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the Advance Estimates.
7. In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.0 per cent during 2011-12, as against the decline of 2.5 per cent during April-November, 2011, which was used in the Advance Estimates.Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 1.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent in 2011-12 whereas during April to December, 2011, the growth rates were (-) 2.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent.The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 0.9 per cent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-) 2.2 per cent.
8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 2.9 per cent during 2011-12, as against the growth rate of 4.1 per cent during April-November, 2011. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 2.5 per cent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 3.9 per cent.
9. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 6.7 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively in 2011-12 as against 5.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively during April-December 2011. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised upwards to 5.3 per cent as against 4.8 per cent in the Advance Estimates. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 17.4 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively during 2011-12 over the corresponding period in 2010-11, as compared to their growth during April-December 2011. The growth of `financing, insurance, real estate and business services`sector is revised to 9.6 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent made earlier in the Advance estimate.
10. The sector `community, social and personal services` has shown a growth of 5.8 per cent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the advance estimates.
Gross National Income
11. The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 51,50,686crore (as compared to Rs. 51,71,538 crore estimated on 7thFebruary 2012), during 2011-12, as against the previous year’s Quick Estimate of Rs. 48,33,178 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 6.6 per cent during 2011-12, in comparison to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2010-11.
Per Capita Net National Income
12. The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2011-12 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 37,851 (as against Rs. 38,005 estimated on 7th February, 2012), as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 35,993. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.2 per cent during 2011-12 as against 6.4 per cent during 2010-11.
(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
13. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 82,32,652crore, showing a growth rate of 15.0 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 71,57,412 crore, released on 31th January 2012.
Gross National Income
14. The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs. 81,48,952crore during 2011-12, as compared to Rs. 70,78,512 crore during 2010-11, showing a rise of 15.1 per cent.
Per Capita Net National Income
15. The per capita income at current prices during 2011-12 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 60,603 as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 53,331, showing a rise of 13.6 per cent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2011-12
16. Along with the Revised Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
17. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 49,61,587crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 43,38,392crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 32,41,479crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 30,72,115crore in 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 56.0 per cent and 57.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.5 per cent and 58.7 per cent, respectively in 2010-11.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 10,35,808crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 9,10,719crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6,27,620crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,97,154crore in 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 11.7 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.9 per cent and 11.4 per cent, respectively in 2010-11.
Gross Capital Formation
19. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 26,14,634crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 23,31,382crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 17,92,521crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 16,99,387crore in 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 29.5 per cent and 32.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4 per cent and 32.5 per cent, respectively in 2010-11. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 3.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.
20. The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 2.0 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of (-) 0.1 per cent and (-)2.5 per cent respectively in 2010-11.
21. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.
III QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2011-12
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
22. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 13,95,071crore, as against Rs. 13,24,484crore in Q4 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 5.3 per cent.
23. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (1.7 per cent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (4.3 per cent), ‘manufacturing’ (-0.3 per cent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (4.9 per cent) ‘construction’ (4.8 per cent), `trade, hotels, transport and communication` (7.0 per cent), `financing, insurance, real estate and business services` (10.0 per cent), and `community, social and personal services` (7.1 per cent).
24. According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of (-) 0.4 per cent, 0.1 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, in Q4 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 1.1per cent, 8.9per cent and 8.1per cent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2010-11.
25. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 7.0 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 4.1 per cent and 6.0 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 16 per cent, (-) 7.5 per cent, (-) 13.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12 over Q4 of 2010-11.
26. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 are estimated at Rs. 7,98,493crore and Rs. 4,71,969crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 were 52.2 per cent and 30.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 51.9 per cent and 31.4 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2010-11.
(b) Estimates at current prices
27. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 22,32,131crore, as against Rs. 19,92,149crorein Q4 of 2010-11, showing a growth of 12.0 per cent.
28. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 are estimated at Rs. 12,84,516crore and Rs.7,00,853crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 are estimated at 52.5 per cent and 28.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 51.7 per cent and 29.4 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2010-11.
29. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.
